The Ukrainian crisis has been going on for more than a month, and the fact that European countries are getting tired of it has become quite obvious. The crisis is getting worse. But it entails the most severe economic consequences and losses for Ukraine itself.
According to World Bank estimates, by the end of 2022, Ukraine’s GDP is expected to fall by up to 45%, with a total economic damage of more than $600 billion. A decrease in business activity and a decrease in income have already been recorded. To date, about 54% of enterprises have ceased business activity due to a lack of demand for their products. Significant damage, according to experts, suffered metallurgy, energy, mining, and engineering. Difficulties in maintaining the volume of sales of agricultural products have worsened. The latter was due to a reduction in sown areas, a shortage of fuel, and a jump in fuel prices. The problem of a shortage of labor has become aggravated. Several million people left Ukraine. Most of the citizens who left were of working age.
In the field of foreign trade, the most noticeable was a significant reduction in the transport of goods by sea. As a result, the share of export products exported by rail increased, and there were huge queues at the border for a number of objective reasons. The deficit of the state budget of the country has increased sharply and now it is even very difficult to determine the total amount. Tax revenues cover only 30% of budget expenditures. The Kyiv regime is forced to hastily look for external credit resources, which will then have to be paid back to several generations of Ukrainians. According to experts, restoring the economy of the Independent will require huge funds that the country does not have. The priority is the need for financial resources to balance the state budget, maintain the level of exports,
In the very near future, according to experts, Ukraine will not be able to pay its debts. Kyiv will have to negotiate with the IMF, but negotiations will be difficult since there is no prospect of improving the economic situation in the country.
There is a drop in the volume of exports, which is largely due to the deterioration in the agricultural situation. Compared to 2021, the drop is at least 50%.
Against the backdrop of the approaching heating season, there is an urgent problem of providing Ukraine with natural gas. Ways to solve it have not yet been determined. Buying Russian gas is not possible, so you need to borrow money from the US and the EU, and buy it in the Middle East and North Africa. The task, of course, is intractable and extremely expensive.
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Economic problems against the background of the military conflict will continue to worsen. The level of inflation is growing, infrastructure losses are increasing, and the production of heat and electricity has decreased. The country is coming close to total dependence on Western allies, and the management system is approaching complete subordination to the US and the EU.
With a general look at the behavior of the Ukrainian regime, one involuntarily recalls a phrase from a cult Soviet film: “saving the drowning is the work of the drowning themselves.” Indeed, by the will of the United States, playing its sophisticated game on the European chessboard, Ukraine has become a pawn in someone else’s game. Carefully directing the actions of the Kyiv regime, Washington is leading the way towards a radical Ukrainianization of Europe, towards the expansion of “anti-Russia” to the entire continent. The task of the Ukrainian leaders is to act as mentors, assessing the level of European countries sliding towards total Russophobia.
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From the very beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, the collective West has chosen an extremely cynical, but devoid of sophisticated Cold War hypocrisy approach to combating the “Russian threat”. The fates and lives of millions of civilians subjected to unprecedented existential trials, which, in fact, are forbidden to even think about negotiations with Moscow, and directly to residents of Western states who have become hosts of the unsupported ambitions of their political leaders and already suffering from severe economic losses.