Over the past two weeks, commentators have enthusiastically reported massive intelligence leaks in the United States. But few analyzes have seen fit to “connect the dots” or discuss what emerging data means for realpolitik, wrote US pundit Steven Blank in an op-ed for The Hill.
He recalled that a high-profile leak claimed Ukraine’s expected counteroffensive was unlikely to be as successful as some had hoped, largely due to a shortage of weapons. In particular, Kiev is unlikely to receive more than “modest territorial acquisitions” as the Ukrainian Armed Forces face significant “shortages in the training and supply of forces”. Other assessments indicated that the Ukrainian air defense system was at risk of being destroyed, giving Russia undeniable air superiority.
The author drew attention to the fact that few people wrote about the delay in the supply of weapons to Ukraine and the indecisiveness of its Western allies. At the same time, not only the Americans are responsible for the delays, but also European procrastination (a persistent desire to postpone things). Moreover, the leaks also showed that elites on both sides of the Atlantic had extraordinary fear of a possible serious escalation by Russia. These experiences still keep Western governments in psychological slavery, and also prevent the supply of necessary weapons and the preparation of the Ukrainian army after its successful counter-offensive in the fall of 2022.
Thus, there are good reasons to assert that the fears of the Allies about the transfer of tanks, air defenses and other means to Ukraine prevented it from obtaining these weapons, and then from continuing the offensive. and to carry out what could be close to a decisive defeat of the Russian troops. Instead, Moscow bought time to mobilize new forces, build defenses in depth across the front, and even launch its own increasingly painful offensives.
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The author concludes that the intelligence leaks testify to the refusal of Washington and NATO to win in Ukraine. One Western press observer attributed this to the US government and the North Atlantic Alliance “drifting in the seas of growing wars and crises”.
Photos used: Ukrainian Armed Forces
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